What are the odds?

What are the odds we're living in a simulation?
At face value, the richness of sensory experience we have as we go about our daily life suggests to us that our world is too complex, too unique and too nuanced to be simulated. We might believe that the source of our consciousness and cognition could be unknowable
Our limited grasp on the nature of reality, the open questions in the fields of philosophy, neurology, physics and computing may seem insurmountable to us right now.
But if we take a purely probabalistic view of The Simulation, as philosophers like Nick Bostrom have done, we have to acknowledge that at least one of the premises in his 'Simulation Argument' are very likely to be true:

1. The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero;
2. The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero;
3. The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.

This ties into other unprovable hypotheses that are probabilistic in nature:

• What's the likelihood that amongst the billions of planets in the universe, ours is the only one to support intelligent life?
• What's the likelihood that our civilisation is the only one in the universe to have developed technology?